TY - GEN
T1 - What Causes Fertility Rate Difference Among Municipalities in Japan
AU - Kurashima, Shigeyuki
AU - Asahi, Yumi
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
PY - 2023
Y1 - 2023
N2 - The declining birth rate in Japan poses a significant threat to the survival of half of municipalities, leading to a recent surge in studies exploring the causes of this phenomenon using Total Fertility Rate (TFR) as a benchmark for municipal unit data. However, focusing solely on TFR is insufficient when investigating the municipal-level reasons for the declining birthrate. In this paper, we conducted a thorough analysis of fertility decline by considering TFR and women’s migration patterns, using both Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to account for regional differences. Our findings reveal that low income and women’s social advancement, commonly regarded as factors contributing to declining fertility, do not significantly impact this phenomenon. Additionally, we observed regional disparities in TFR that cannot be explained by the variables incorporated in this study, with a trend of higher TFR in the west and lower TFR in the east. Moreover, by examining successful population maintenance policies in various regions, we identified common steps that have proven effective in maintaining population growth.
AB - The declining birth rate in Japan poses a significant threat to the survival of half of municipalities, leading to a recent surge in studies exploring the causes of this phenomenon using Total Fertility Rate (TFR) as a benchmark for municipal unit data. However, focusing solely on TFR is insufficient when investigating the municipal-level reasons for the declining birthrate. In this paper, we conducted a thorough analysis of fertility decline by considering TFR and women’s migration patterns, using both Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to account for regional differences. Our findings reveal that low income and women’s social advancement, commonly regarded as factors contributing to declining fertility, do not significantly impact this phenomenon. Additionally, we observed regional disparities in TFR that cannot be explained by the variables incorporated in this study, with a trend of higher TFR in the west and lower TFR in the east. Moreover, by examining successful population maintenance policies in various regions, we identified common steps that have proven effective in maintaining population growth.
KW - birthrate
KW - female moving in and moving out
KW - geographically weighted regression model
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85171362687
U2 - 10.1007/978-3-031-35132-7_16
DO - 10.1007/978-3-031-35132-7_16
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85171362687
SN - 9783031351310
T3 - Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
SP - 222
EP - 235
BT - Human Interface and the Management of Information - Thematic Area, HIMI 2023, Held as Part of the 25th HCI International Conference, HCII 2023, Proceedings
A2 - Mori, Hirohiko
A2 - Asahi, Yumi
PB - Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
T2 - International Conference on Human Interface and the Management of Information, HIMI 2023, held as part of the 25th International Conference on Human-Computer Interaction, HCII 2023
Y2 - 23 July 2023 through 28 July 2023
ER -