TY - GEN
T1 - Analysis of Declining Fertility Rate in Japan by Focusing on TFR and Women Moving
AU - Kurashima, Shigeyuki
AU - Asahi, Yumi
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - In Japan, birth rates are declining year by year. If this goes on, half of municipalities will disappear. Recently, there have been many studies on fertility using TFR as a benchmark for municipal unit data. However, when considering the municipal level, it is not sufficient to focus only on the TFR in investigating the reason for the declining birthrate. In this paper, we conducted an analysis of fertility decline by focusing on TFR and women moving in and moving out of regions. We used OLS regression that do not take into account regional differences and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) which allows to include regional differences. We could infer that low income and women’s social advancement, which are generally considered to be factors in declining fertility, do not have much of an impact from the results. We also found that there are regional disparities in TFR that cannot be explained by the variables incorporated in this study, and regional disparities were a trend of west high and east low. In addition, when we looked at the policies of regions that have been successful in maintaining their populations, we also found that there are common steps in policies that are successful in maintaining population.
AB - In Japan, birth rates are declining year by year. If this goes on, half of municipalities will disappear. Recently, there have been many studies on fertility using TFR as a benchmark for municipal unit data. However, when considering the municipal level, it is not sufficient to focus only on the TFR in investigating the reason for the declining birthrate. In this paper, we conducted an analysis of fertility decline by focusing on TFR and women moving in and moving out of regions. We used OLS regression that do not take into account regional differences and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) which allows to include regional differences. We could infer that low income and women’s social advancement, which are generally considered to be factors in declining fertility, do not have much of an impact from the results. We also found that there are regional disparities in TFR that cannot be explained by the variables incorporated in this study, and regional disparities were a trend of west high and east low. In addition, when we looked at the policies of regions that have been successful in maintaining their populations, we also found that there are common steps in policies that are successful in maintaining population.
KW - Declining birthrate
KW - Female moving in and moving out
KW - Fertility rate
KW - Geographically weighted regression model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85133014606&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/978-3-031-06424-1_25
DO - 10.1007/978-3-031-06424-1_25
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85133014606
SN - 9783031064234
T3 - Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
SP - 337
EP - 353
BT - Human Interface and the Management of Information
A2 - Yamamoto, Sakae
A2 - Mori, Hirohiko
PB - Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
T2 - Thematic area Human Interface and the Management of Information, HIMI 2022 Part of the 24th HCI International Conference, HCII 2022
Y2 - 26 June 2022 through 1 July 2022
ER -