Analysis of Declining Fertility Rate in Japan by Focusing on TFR and Women Moving

Shigeyuki Kurashima, Yumi Asahi

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

In Japan, birth rates are declining year by year. If this goes on, half of municipalities will disappear. Recently, there have been many studies on fertility using TFR as a benchmark for municipal unit data. However, when considering the municipal level, it is not sufficient to focus only on the TFR in investigating the reason for the declining birthrate. In this paper, we conducted an analysis of fertility decline by focusing on TFR and women moving in and moving out of regions. We used OLS regression that do not take into account regional differences and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) which allows to include regional differences. We could infer that low income and women’s social advancement, which are generally considered to be factors in declining fertility, do not have much of an impact from the results. We also found that there are regional disparities in TFR that cannot be explained by the variables incorporated in this study, and regional disparities were a trend of west high and east low. In addition, when we looked at the policies of regions that have been successful in maintaining their populations, we also found that there are common steps in policies that are successful in maintaining population.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationHuman Interface and the Management of Information
Subtitle of host publicationVisual and Information Design - Thematic Area, HIMI 2022, Held as Part of the 24th HCI International Conference, HCII 2022, Proceedings
EditorsSakae Yamamoto, Hirohiko Mori
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Pages337-353
Number of pages17
ISBN (Print)9783031064234
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2022
EventThematic area Human Interface and the Management of Information, HIMI 2022 Part of the 24th HCI International Conference, HCII 2022 - Virtual, Online
Duration: 26 Jun 20221 Jul 2022

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Volume13305 LNCS
ISSN (Print)0302-9743
ISSN (Electronic)1611-3349

Conference

ConferenceThematic area Human Interface and the Management of Information, HIMI 2022 Part of the 24th HCI International Conference, HCII 2022
CityVirtual, Online
Period26/06/221/07/22

Keywords

  • Declining birthrate
  • Female moving in and moving out
  • Fertility rate
  • Geographically weighted regression model

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